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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:54) (Shotgun) 12-N.Mullens pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [7-Q.Walker].

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model