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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 30

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-S.Toure MUFFS catch, touched at GB 20, RECOVERED by MIN-11-N.Thompson at GB 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP