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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model