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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to MIN 34, Center-42-M.Orzech. 4-B.Powell to MIN 38 for 4 yards (20-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP