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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to GB 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model