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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 30 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 17-A.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.06 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model