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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model