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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 24
Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(13:24) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep left to 80-B.Melton.
The Three Options
GO
+2.36 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.10 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -1.33 EP
KICK
+1.07 EP
- 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
- 11% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT
-0.52 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
