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HOU Away

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2023-12-17 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

HOU
45.4%
TEN
54.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Case Keenum (HOU): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts (HOU starting Case Keenum in place of C.J. Stroud)
  • TEN defense: +0.033 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 21
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

HOU

Will Anderson DE Out Ankle
Blake Cashman LB Out Hamstring
Tavierre Thomas CB Out Hamstring
C.J. Stroud QB Doubtful Concussion
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Wrist
Nico Collins WR Questionable Calf
George Fant T Questionable Hip
Noah Brown WR Questionable Knee
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Calf
Henry To'oTo'o LB Questionable Hamstring

TEN

Kyle Philips WR Out Hamstring
Jeffery Simmons DT Out Knee
Teair Tart DT Out Not injury related - personal matter
Josh Whyle TE Out Knee
Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR Questionable Illness
Daniel Brunskill G Questionable Illness
Jack Gibbens LB Questionable Back
K'Von Wallace S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 19
–
TEN 16

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 TD TEN (7:12) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on HOU-25-D.King, Defensive Offside, declined. HOU 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 14:05 TD TEN (14:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short left intended for 33-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden at HOU 44. 24-E.Molden for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 12
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 3 – TEN 13
  • Q3 06:30 FG HOU (6:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 6 – TEN 13
  • Q3 02:47 FG HOU (2:47) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 9 – TEN 13
  • Q4 07:33 FG TEN (7:33) 6-N.Folk 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner. HOU 9 – TEN 16
  • Q4 03:08 TD HOU (3:08) (Shotgun) 18-C.Keenum pass short middle to 85-N.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 15 – TEN 16
  • Q5 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 19 – TEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:04) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to TEN 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 17 for 5 yards (37-D.Ross).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:21) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 27 for 1 yard (6-D.Perryman).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 22%

    (1:25) 13-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-20-K.Hollman.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:44) 13-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to HOU 43, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 89%

    (1:18) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to TEN 19 for 3 yards (37-A.Hooker).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (6:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 66%

    (2:47) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (:06) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to HOU 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-11-C.Moore.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to HOU 46 for 6 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:50) 13-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 29 for 6 yards (47-A.Beck).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:27) 13-T.Zentner punts 58 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-S.Sims to HOU 30 for 18 yards (57-L.Gifford).