Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 88

Houston Texans 9 – Tennessee Titans 13

(12:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Kinsey to HOU 46 for 6 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model