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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to TEN 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-20-K.Hollman.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model