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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 6 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 13-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.22 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model