Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 16 – Houston Texans 16

(:27) 13-T.Zentner punts 58 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 82-S.Sims to HOU 30 for 18 yards (57-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.37 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -1.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model