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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 35

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 15-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model