4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 11-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.24 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP