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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 9

Houston Texans 3 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP