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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 27 for 1 yard (6-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model