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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

PHI
37.6%
DAL
62.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.162 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.208 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.115 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than PHI
  • PHI defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PHI

No players on the report.

DAL

Matt Waletzko T Out Shoulder
Rico Dowdle RB Questionable Ankle
Peyton Hendershot TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 13
–
DAL 33

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:09 TD DAL (10:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 00:55 FG DAL (:55) 99-C.Golston reported in as eligible. 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 0 – DAL 10
  • Q2 12:38 FG PHI (12:38) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 06:16 TD DAL (6:16) 71-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 23-R.Dowdle right guard to PHI 1 for no gain (98-J.Carter). Dallas challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 71-C.Edoga reported in as eligible. 23-R.Dowdle right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – DAL 16
  • Q2 01:52 FG PHI (1:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 6 – DAL 17
  • Q2 00:23 TD DAL (:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DAL 23
  • Q3 10:52 TD PHI (10:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 39 for -6 yards (91-F.Cox). FUMBLES (91-F.Cox) [91-F.Cox], RECOVERED by PHI-98-J.Carter at DAL 42. 98-J.Carter for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – DAL 24
  • Q3 04:54 FG DAL (4:54) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 13 – DAL 27
  • Q4 09:44 FG DAL (9:44) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 13 – DAL 30
  • Q4 01:13 FG DAL (1:13) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. PHI 13 – DAL 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 50%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 40 for 4 yards (94-J.Sweat, 2-D.Slay).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 20 at the 42
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 56%

    (:55) 99-C.Golston reported in as eligible. 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (14:54) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann pass short right to 13-O.Zaccheaus to DAL 39 for 28 yards (18-J.Tolbert, 89-P.Hendershot).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 74%

    (12:38) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 18 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 87%

    (1:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:12) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 18 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:11) 10-B.Mann punts 39 yards to DAL 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 81%

    (:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to DAL 29 for 1 yard (21-S.Gilmore).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (9:44) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (1:13) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.