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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 4-J.Elliott 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.91 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model