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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model