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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to PHI 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 18-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 18 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP