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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 17-B.Aubrey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP