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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model