Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 69

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 10-B.Mann punts 39 yards to DAL 30, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on PHI-28-J.Jobe, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.82 EP
55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model