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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to PHI 40 for 4 yards (94-J.Sweat, 2-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.31 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model