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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(:55) 99-C.Golston reported in as eligible. 17-B.Aubrey 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model