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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Thursday 2023-12-07 · 20:15 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.0 O/U 30.0

Win Probability

NE
26.2%
PIT
73.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Bailey Zappe (NE): -0.114 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 17
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 8 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NE

Demario Douglas WR Out Concussion
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Out Ankle
Kayshon Boutte WR Out Shoulder
Riley Reiff T Out Knee
Shaun Wade CB Out Illness
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Shoulder
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Knee
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Questionable Ankle

PIT

Kenny Pickett QB Out Ankle
James Pierre CB Out Shoulder
Najee Harris RB Questionable Knee
Isaac Seumalo G Questionable Shoulder
Mason Cole C Questionable Neck
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 21
–
PIT 18

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 TD NE (11:18) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short right to 15-E.Elliott for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – PIT 0
  • Q1 06:44 FG PIT (6:44) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. NE 7 – PIT 3
  • Q2 14:19 TD NE (14:19) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – PIT 3
  • Q2 07:43 TD NE (7:43) (Shotgun) 4-B.Zappe pass deep left to 85-H.Henry for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – PIT 3
  • Q2 02:55 TD PIT (2:55) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – PIT 9
  • Q4 11:47 TD PIT (11:47) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – PIT 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

    (6:44) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to PIT 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 21 for 5 yards (22-C.Davis).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:57) 6-P.Harvin punts 48 yards to NE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (2:14) 17-B.Baringer punts 35 yards to PIT 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin to PIT 15 for 5 yards (18-M.Slater; 45-C.Board).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:53) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to NE 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:56) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to NE 41, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:29) 17-B.Baringer punts 51 yards to PIT 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-C.Austin MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 9. 19-C.Austin to PIT 9 for no gain (41-B.Schooler).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 29%

    (7:59) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 15 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:19) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to PIT 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:14) 6-P.Harvin punts 36 yards to NE 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-J.Warren to NE 7 for 1 yard (8-J.Bentley; 3-M.Wilson).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 11 yards to NE 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-30-M.Mapu.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (8:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (48-Ja.Tavai; 8-J.Bentley).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to NE 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:51) 17-B.Baringer punts 50 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 29%

    (2:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.42 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 59%

    (:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to PIT 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.