4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model