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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 39

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 26 yards to PIT 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.84 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.42 EP