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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 85

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 11 yards to NE 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-30-M.Mapu.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP