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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Pittsburgh Steelers
4th & 2 at the 51
Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – New England Patriots 21
What Actually Happened
(2:01) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep left to 18-D.Johnson.
The Three Options
GO
+0.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.14 EP
- 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -1.85 EP
KICK
-0.78 EP
- 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
- 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
-0.71 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
