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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 55

New England Patriots 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 18

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 17-B.Baringer punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP