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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (48-Ja.Tavai; 8-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model