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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-J.Warren to NE 7 for 1 yard (8-J.Bentley; 3-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 8, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model