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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 66

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model