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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-12-10 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

DET
54.4%
CHI
45.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.168 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CHI on 6 more days rest than DET
  • CHI offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
CHI 20
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

DET

Frank Ragnow C Out Knee
Hendon Hooker QB Out Knee
Malcolm Rodriguez LB Questionable Ankle

CHI

Equanimeous St. Brown WR Out Pectoral
Velus Jones WR Questionable Illness
Yannick Ngakoue DE Questionable Knee
Tyler Scott WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 13
–
CHI 28

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 TD CHI (10:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-D.Moore. 2-D.Moore left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 6
  • Q1 01:27 FG CHI (1:27) 8-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 0 – CHI 10
  • Q2 07:04 TD DET (7:04) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:30 TD DET (:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 8-J.Reynolds for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – CHI 10
  • Q3 08:42 FG CHI (8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 13 – CHI 13
  • Q3 01:42 TD CHI (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined. DET 13 – CHI 19
  • Q4 14:19 TD CHI (14:19) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – CHI 25
  • Q4 09:23 FG CHI (9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. DET 13 – CHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:43) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to CHI 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 9 for 1 yard (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 65%

    (14:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Johnson at CHI 15. 33-J.Johnson to CHI 39 for 24 yards (14-A.St. Brown). FUMBLES (14-A.St. Brown), touched at CHI 40, ball out of bounds at 50. PENALTY on CHI-4-E.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 57%

    (11:43) (No Huddle) 2-D.Moore left end to DET 38 for no gain (6-I.Melifonwu, 93-J.Paschal).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 57%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 19-D.Peoples-Jones to CHI 21 for 17 yards (32-T.Smith).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 18 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:21) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 47, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:10) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to CHI 13, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 28 for 15 yards (46-J.Campbell; 30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (8:42) 8-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:50) 3-J.Fox punts 51 yards to CHI 17, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 48 for 31 yards (3-J.Fox).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (5:36) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:15) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at 50 for 9 yards (89-B.Wright).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (1:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-97-A.Hutchinson, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 30 for -4 yards (57-J.Sanborn, 29-T.Stevenson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 57%

    (5:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 12 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:43) 16-T.Gill punts 53 yards to DET 11, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 25 for 14 yards (55-D.Cole; 44-N.Sewell).