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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 38

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 19-D.Peoples-Jones to CHI 21 for 17 yards (32-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.65 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model