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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 35

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(14:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right intended for 87-S.LaPorta INTERCEPTED by 33-J.Johnson at CHI 15. 33-J.Johnson to CHI 39 for 24 yards (14-A.St. Brown). FUMBLES (14-A.St. Brown), touched at CHI 40, ball out of bounds at 50. PENALTY on CHI-4-E.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 22.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model