4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 10

Chicago Bears 25 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 8-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP