Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 63

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 7

(6:43) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to CHI 8, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor to CHI 9 for 1 yard (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.66 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 63, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model