Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 84

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 13

(4:15) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 41, Center-43-J.McQuaide. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at 50 for 9 yards (89-B.Wright).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model