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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 51

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 17 for 4 yards (39-J.Blackwell).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model