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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 25

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 30 for -4 yards (57-J.Sanborn, 29-T.Stevenson).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model