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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 38

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 28

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep middle to 14-A.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP