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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Thursday 2023-11-23 · 20:20 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
66.3%
SEA
33.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.342 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 25
–
SEA 20
Projected margin: SF by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SF

Spencer Burford G Questionable Knee
Robert Beal DE Questionable Hamstring
Samuel Womack CB Questionable Knee
Aaron Banks G Questionable Toe

SEA

Jerrick Reed S Out Knee
Kenneth Walker RB Doubtful Oblique
Dareke Young WR Doubtful Abdomen
Abraham Lucas T Questionable Knee
Geno Smith QB Questionable right Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 31
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:04 TD SF (10:04) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 09:11 FG SEA (9:11) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 7 – SEA 3
  • Q2 13:15 TD SF (13:15) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 3
  • Q2 05:19 TD SF (5:19) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – SEA 3
  • Q2 00:43 FG SF (:43) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 24 – SEA 3
  • Q3 11:30 TD SEA (11:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 23-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 56-J.Brooks at SF 12. 56-J.Brooks for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 24 – SEA 9
  • Q3 03:16 FG SEA (3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SF 24 – SEA 13
  • Q4 07:59 TD SF (7:59) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 11-B.Aiyuk for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

    (9:11) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 20 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 57%

    (5:07) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 11 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to SEA 45, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 47%

    (10:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to SEA 2, impetus ends at SEA 1, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to SF 38, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud to SF 42 for 4 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 18 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 21, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 25 for 4 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 31-D.Dallas MUFFS catch, touched at SEA 30, RECOVERED by SF-10-R.Bell at SEA 22. SF-30-G.Odum was injured during the play.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 95%

    (:43) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 52%

    (11:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SF 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-23-A.Burns.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Rhattigan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (3:16) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (15:00) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 29 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-48-O.Burks.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to SF 36, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud to SF 38 for 2 yards (8-C.Bryant). FUMBLES (8-C.Bryant), touched at SF 38, recovered by SF-48-O.Burks at SF 36.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 91%

    (4:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right end to SF 22 for -1 yards (97-N.Bosa, 2-D.Lenoir).