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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(:43) 4-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.73 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP