Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 24

(11:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to SF 4, Center-41-C.Stoll, downed by SEA-23-A.Burns.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.02 EP
71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.16 EP

KICK -0.23 EP

52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
48% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model