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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 80

Seattle Seahawks 3 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to SF 21, Center-41-C.Stoll. 3-R.McCloud pushed ob at SF 25 for 4 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.97 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model