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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 5-J.Myers 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model