Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to SEA 20, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Rhattigan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model